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Macro INSIGHTS

Watch the Macro, Focus on the Micro

Our challenge, as an India focused value manager, remains: to understand and analyze the businesses; to decipher the valuations ascribed to these businesses; and to understand the ability of the management to guide these businesses in good/bad times - the unflinching question of leadership is crucial.

But companies/managements cannot work in isolation without a macro framework. Our macro framework is built on the fact that India’s realistic GDP growth is likely to remain 6%-6.5% over the long term, irrespective of which political party is in power. While potential to grow faster exists, the society and political will to push India’s economic growth to a desired rate of 8%-8.5% depends on priorities. These priorities are a function of the societies’ political mandate, the political will to aim for an equitable and faster GDP growth based on this mandate and policies that enable Corporate India to invest aggressively to drive growth. 

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Most of our macro analysis/commentary is focused on deciding this macro framework to use in our models i.e. real GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange. Across our financial models, we use: real GDP growth of 6%-6.5%, inflation at 5%, 10-year long bond yield at 7% and USDINR in 2% range.

 

We review these assumptions every year based on developments in Society that influence Politics, which in turn designs policies for growth for industry thus benefiting companies. 

FEATURED ARTICLES
  • Investing Insights 2021: Themes and Trends
    Investing Insights 2021: Themes and Trends

    2020 has been a year of facing, learning and adapting to the unknown. We look to the year ahead and what is to come.

  • India Macro: The Impossible Trinity
    India Macro: The Impossible Trinity

    India's macro-economic policy leaders tackle the trilemma dilemma of capital mobility, exchange rate management and monetary autonomy.

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Watch the Macro, Focus on the Micro

“With all the macro noise around us we remain bottom-up stock pickers. Armed with a mandate to look after your capital, at the end of the day we remain disciplined value managers.”

  • A look at Indian asset allocation as the world frets over Inflation.

    The Inflation Tantrum: Q India Asset Allocation Insights

    A look at Indian asset allocation as the world frets over Inflation.

  • The government has shocked the bond markets and cheered the equity markets with its new budget - will increased spending spur growth?

    Modi Sheds His Fiscal Conservatism: India 2021 Budget Outlook

    The government has shocked the bond markets and cheered the equity markets with its new budget - will increased spending spur growth?

  • 2020 has been a year of facing, learning and adapting to the unknown. We look to the year ahead and what is to come.

    Investing Insights 2021: Themes and Trends

    2020 has been a year of facing, learning and adapting to the unknown. We look to the year ahead and what is to come.

  • India's macro-economic policy leaders tackle the trilemma dilemma of capital mobility, exchange rate management and monetary autonomy.

    India Macro: The Impossible Trinity

    India's macro-economic policy leaders tackle the trilemma dilemma of capital mobility, exchange rate management and monetary autonomy.

Image by Nikunj Gupta

Why India? Politics Does Not Matter

“Long term investors should ignore the political battles in India. Much of it is, well – politics - and much of it hides the simple but powerful fact: India’s GDP has grown by 6.2% per annum in real terms for 40 years; across 10 governments, 7 of which have been coalitions.”

  • ESG Indexes – A Stumbling Block for India Investors

    ESG Indexes – A Stumbling Block for India Investors

    ESG indexes are only as good as the underlying data used to construct them and are rightly under increasing investor scrutiny.

  • Meet the Team: ESG Governance Strategy

    Meet the Team: ESG Governance Strategy

    Our ESG leads discuss portfolio research & construction and their experience of ESG engagements with Indian corporates.

  • India Macro: The Impossible Trinity

    India Macro: The Impossible Trinity

    India's macro-economic policy leaders tackle the trilemma dilemma of capital mobility, exchange rate management and monetary autonomy.

  • Modi Sheds His Fiscal Conservatism: India 2021 Budget Outlook

    Modi Sheds His Fiscal Conservatism: India 2021 Budget Outlook

    The government has shocked the bond markets and cheered the equity markets with its new budget - will increased spending spur growth?

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Tel No : +91-22-6144 7900 / 22830322

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In case of any complaint: Mr. Piyush Thakkar, email – complaint@qasl.com

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Important Disclosure: Quantum Advisors provides a direct onboarding option to clients who wish to avail our services, without intermediation of persons engaged in distribution services.

 

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