QUANTUM ADVISORS PATHWAYS
India@75, Next 25
Pathways deliver a deep dive into navigating the ideas and insights on new and rapidly growing India asset classes. In this Pathway we examine how geopolitics has shaped India's post-independence democracy and consider its long term investment case.
On 15th August 2022, India celebrated 75 years of being a free country since ending British colonial rule in 1947. Though India boasts a civilization with recorded history of over 5,000 years, India, as a modern nation state, is very young.
Despite rumours of its impending death over the past 75 years, India is humming along. It has handled the pulls and pressures of diversity in culture, religion, language, and political thought to remain a vibrant democracy.
While much is to be done, its steadily growing economy has helped bring millions out of poverty. The next 25 years will determine the success of India’s social challenges of strengthening the democratic institutions, raising the quality of education and health, improving the standard of life for the bottom 20% of its people by providing opportunities for job and income creation.
Through a series of articles we look at what shaped India’s post independence political and economic trajectory and whats in store over the next 25 years when India celebrates its 100th anniversary.
Crucially, what does this mean for investors and how should they look at India as a strategic allocation?
India@75 – How Geo-politics Shaped India’s Destiny
We look at how the geo-politics shaped India’s socio, economic and political trajectory over the last 75 years. Be it the independence from the British colonial rule post World War 2; the idea of non-alignment; India’s pivot to Russia as Nixon embraced China in the 70s and the fall of the Berlin wall which made India look to the west unleashing market-economy reforms in the 1990s.
India@75, Next 25 – Decoupling is a Myth
Over the next 25 years, India will have - a larger share of global GDP, an increased share of global trade, will be linked into global supply chains, and access to a larger share of global capital. India’s dependency on the global world and more so vice versa will increase. India, if anything, will integrate more with the global economy.
India’s Allocation in Global Portfolios Should Reflect its Share in Global GDP
Over the next decade, India is slated to overtake Germany and Japan to become the third largest economy in nominal terms. India’s share of Global GDP in nominal terms will rise from the current ~3.35% to well above 5% over the next 10 years. We argue that, in many other global markets, GDP weighted allocation may not be a relevant measure. However, in India it may be one of the most important measures to decide an allocation.
India – No Country for a Strong Man
Do Global Corporations and Investors consider India becoming un-democratic, autocratic? Should they worry about Modi being a ‘Strong Man’? Global Corporations and Investors have seen the financial impact of investing in undemocratic, strongman led countries. We do not think this worry has got anything to do with the form of political system. The worry stems from individuals who have unlimited power to decide and destroy. We however argue that, India is not China, Russia or Turkey. Modi is not a Xi, Putin or Erdogan
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